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Heathcliff

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 102

Kempton · ebfstallions.com Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Multiple all-weather scorer who added to his tally at Lingfield (7f) in February before a good second at listed level next time. Creditable 4¼ lengths fourth of 11 to Paborus in Group 3 Chipchase at Newcastle (6f) when last seen in June but has to give weight to some strong opposition here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Kempton 05/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 90 · 6f Sta 122 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 90 par5/112OR 902 @ Kempton 17/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 91 · 6f Sta 126 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 91 par2 @ Kempton 07/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 91 · 7f Sta 121 · beat its mark07/01/2026 · OR 91 par7/012OR 912 @ Lingfield 14/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 91 · 7f1y Std 127 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 91 par1 @ Wolverhampton 07/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 95 · 7f36y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 95 par7/031OR 952 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 105 · 6f Std 136 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 105 · 6f212y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 105 par9/051OR 1052 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 21st of 27 · OR 103 · 6f GF 133 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 103 par1 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 102 · 6f Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 102 par27/061OR 102projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Newcastle14th2nd+1
2026-06-20Royal Ascot221th21th0
2026-05-09Haydock17th6th+1
2026-04-03Newcastle24th4th0
2026-03-07Wolverhampton12nd1st+1
2026-02-14Lingfield21st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1114/029/0527/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength75%

Delivery trend +8.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/11/20252nd5/174%80%+0.06
17/12/20253rd4/179%78%-0.01
07/01/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
14/02/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
07/03/20262nd20/10%86%+0.86
03/04/20264th28/10%77%+0.77
09/05/20267th66/10%40%+0.40
20/06/202621st80/10%23%+0.23
27/06/20264th20/10%70%+0.70