IvyArcIvyArc
3

Mitbaahy

7yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 106

Kempton · ebfstallions.com Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Group 2 winner in his prime and placed efforts in a Newbury Group 3 and the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood this summer show he's still smart on his day. Well held in a soft-ground Group 3 in France last time but should have a say here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.1
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Curragh 25/05/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 108 · 6f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2024 · OR 108 par25/051OR 1081 @ Royal Ascot 22/06/2024 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 113 · 6f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2024 · OR 113 par1 @ Newmarket 13/07/2024 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 113 · 6f Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/07/2024 · OR 113 par13/071OR 1131 @ Lingfield 02/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 111 · 6f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/02/2025 · OR 111 par1 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 107 · 6f2y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 107 par28/031OR 1072 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 27 · OR 104 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 104 · 6f GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 104 par18/071OR 1042 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 27 · OR 104 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ Deauville 30/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 107 · 5f212y Hvy 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 107 par30/081OR 107projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Deauville19th7th+1
2026-08-01Goodwood23rd3rd0
2026-07-18Newbury12nd0th+1
2026-06-20Royal Ascot25th5th0
2026-03-28Doncaster112th11th+1
2025-02-02Lingfield12nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/052/0218/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/20241st9/153%100%+0.47
22/06/20247th9/153%50%-0.03
13/07/202411th33/10%0%0.00
02/02/20252nd6/168%75%+0.07
28/03/202612th14/126%0%-0.26
20/06/20265th50/10%85%+0.85
18/07/20262nd16/116%83%+0.68
01/08/20263rd14/126%92%+0.66
30/08/20269th7/282%11%-0.70