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5

Spy Chief

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 107

Kempton · ebfstallions.com Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Talented but quirky. Resumed with very good second in Salisbury 6f listed event, despite looking awkward under pressure. Looked a hard ride again (pulled hard) when below par in another listed event at Newbury 12 days ago. Has a hood refitted for the first time since his debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 12/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f3y Goo 13012/0651 @ Royal Ascot 21/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 94 · 7f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 94 par1 @ Newmarket 12/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 106 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 106 par12/071OR 1061 @ Newbury 16/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 108 · 7f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 108 par1 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 108 · 7f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 108 par19/091OR 1081 @ Ascot 18/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 107 · 6f Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 107 par1 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 106 · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 106 par23/051OR 1062 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 25th of 27 · OR 108 · 6f GF 138 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 108 par1 @ Newbury 18/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 108 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 108 par18/091OR 108projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newbury16th5th+1
2026-06-20Royal Ascot225th25th0
2026-05-23Salisbury12nd1st+1
2025-10-18Ascot18th6th+2
2025-09-19Newbury13rd2nd+1
2025-08-16Newbury16th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0616/0823/0518/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -12.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20251st7/593%100%+0.07
21/06/20252nd20/10%93%+0.93
12/07/20257th22/10%54%+0.54
16/08/20256th15/261%44%-0.16
19/09/20253rd10/382%60%-0.22
18/10/20258th28/10%61%+0.61
23/05/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
20/06/202625th5/174%8%-0.66
18/09/20266th2/189%29%-0.61