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5

Cape Fear

3yo Colt · 9-6 · OR 85

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap · 1m 2f 219y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

16%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Windsor in August then ran well when fifth of 9 in a much stronger handicap at Ascot 25 days ago, racing closer to the pace than ideal. One to take very seriously switched to all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m2f37y Goo 1235/0444 @ Beverley 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m1f207y Gd 1334 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 78 · 1m2f Goo 127 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 78 par11/054OR 784 @ Redcar 26/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 78 · 1m2f1y Goo 126 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Lingfield 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 1m3f133y Goo 128 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 78 par18/064OR 784 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 78 · 1m4f GF 123 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Chester 02/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 78 · 1m2f70y Gd 133 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 78 par2/084OR 784 @ Windsor 24/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 77 · 1m3f99y Goo 126 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 85 · 1m3f211y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 85 par5/092OR 85projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot25th3rd+2
2026-08-24Windsor41st1st0
2026-08-02Chester42nd2nd0
2026-07-11Newmarket43rd3rd0
2026-06-18Lingfield41st1st0
2026-05-26Redcar42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0426/052/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength92%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08
23/04/20262nd5/493%86%-0.08
11/05/20263rd10/382%83%+0.01
26/05/20262nd10/1195%80%-0.15
18/06/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
11/07/20263rd5/696%50%-0.46
02/08/20262nd9/488%88%-0.01
24/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
05/09/20265th22/10%50%+0.50