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Forever Penywern

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 86

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap · 1m 2f 219y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

30%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Brought up Flat hat-trick at Southwell in July before third of 12 over 1½m here in August when upped in grade and lost little in defeat. Holds place claims once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Goodwood 24/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 74 · 1m3f44y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 74 par24/083OR 744 @ Chelmsford City 18/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 80 · 1m2f Std 131 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Fontwell 16/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 2m1f162y GS 15416/1144 @ Stratford 09/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 2m2f148y Sft 1544 @ Huntingdon 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m7f171y Gd 1514/0444 @ Taunton 22/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 102 · 2m3f1y Gd 150 · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 102 par5 @ Ffos Las 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 100 · 1m7f182y Gd 163 · below its mark05/05/2026 · OR 100 par5/055OR 1004 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 80 · 1m3f23y Std 135 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 86 · 1m3f219y Sta 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 86 par12/083OR 86projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Kempton33rd2nd+1
2026-07-05Southwell41st1st0
2026-05-05Ffos Las52nd3rd−1
2026-04-22Taunton47th7th0
2026-04-04Huntingdon43rd3rd0
2026-03-09Stratford43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/089/035/0512/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/08/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
18/09/20251st2/598%100%+0.02
16/11/20255th10/382%33%-0.49
09/03/20263rd18/15%60%+0.55
04/04/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13
22/04/20267th16/116%25%+0.09
05/05/20262nd7/163%91%+0.28
05/07/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
12/08/20263rd11/271%82%+0.11