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Tiernan

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 85

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap · 1m 2f 219y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

27%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark at Hamilton in August and produced good second on all-weather debut over 1½m here 25 days ago. Seemed unsuited by softer going on turf last time and could go well back at this venue.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength90%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Hamilton 22/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 101 · 1m3f15y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 101 par22/082OR 1012 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 22nd of 22 · OR 101 · 1m3f197y Hvy 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 101 par3 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 95 · 1m3f15y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 95 par15/053OR 952 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 90 · 1m3f39y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 85 · 1m2f5y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 85 par7/073OR 853 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 85 · 1m3f15y Gd 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 85 · 1m4f15y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 85 par21/082OR 853 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 85 · 1m3f219y Sta 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 86 · 1m2f Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 86 par17/092OR 86projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr26th4th+2
2026-09-05Kempton32nd1st+1
2026-08-21Hamilton25th3rd+2
2026-08-01Hamilton31st0th+1
2026-07-07Pontefract32nd1st+1
2026-05-30Carlisle211th9th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0830/0521/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength53%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20252nd1/599%67%-0.32
08/11/202522nd25/10%0%0.00
15/05/20266th6/168%17%-0.52
30/05/202611th50/10%9%+0.09
07/07/20262nd6/594%89%-0.05
01/08/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
21/08/20265th10/382%67%-0.16
05/09/20262nd7/163%90%+0.27
17/09/20266th5/174%50%-0.24