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Big Time Rascal

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 54

Kempton · Get Best Odds Guaranteed At Unibet Handicap · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won on stable debut in August and ran well from a higher mark later that month but was only fourteenth of 17 in a handicap at Bath 17 days ago when slowly into stride. Lightly raced on all-weather so could bounce back dropped in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength85%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 24/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 49 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark24/03/2026 · OR 49 par24/036OR 496 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 48 · 6f1y Std 128 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 48 · 5f160y Goo 128 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 48 par22/056OR 486 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 50 · 5f60y Gd 135 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Brighton 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 50 · 5f215y GF 135 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 50 par30/066OR 506 @ Brighton 07/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 50 · 5f215y GF 140 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Brighton 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 52 · 5f215y Goo 132 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 52 par7/086OR 522 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 55 · 5f215y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 55 par2 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 55 · 5f160y GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 55 par13/092OR 55projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath214th9th+4
2026-08-23Brighton24th-1th+4
2026-08-07Brighton61st1st0
2026-07-07Brighton65th5th0
2026-06-30Brighton61st1st0
2026-06-09Brighton64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/039/067/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength37%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/03/20266th16/116%50%+0.34
30/04/20262nd13/266%89%+0.23
22/05/20262nd13/266%92%+0.26
09/06/20264th7/491%57%-0.34
30/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
07/07/20265th7/491%60%-0.31
07/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
23/08/20264th16/116%80%+0.64
13/09/202614th7/163%19%-0.44