May Encounter
4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 52
Kempton · Get Best Odds Guaranteed At Unibet Handicap · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Bath | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Windsor | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Nottingham | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Windsor | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 22/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 62% | +0.35 |
| 07/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |