5
My Dad Tom
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 55
Kempton · Get Best Odds Guaranteed At Unibet Handicap · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-08 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 01/12/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 08/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 30/12/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 44% | -0.41 |
| 16/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 13/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |