IvyArcIvyArc
10

Southbank

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 51

Kempton · Get Best Odds Guaranteed At Unibet Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won over C&D before and is better on all-weather so should come on for recent return from 11 weeks off which took place on turf in first-time cheekpieces. Headgear now removed and back on all-weather. Not best drawn but is one to keep an eye on from this mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 07/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 57 · 6f1y Std 127 · beat its mark07/01/2026 · OR 57 par7/016OR 576 @ Lingfield 17/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 56 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Kempton 28/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 56 · 6f 152 · beat its mark28/01/2026 · OR 56 par28/016OR 566 @ Lingfield 25/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 56 · 6f1y Std 130 · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 55 · 6f1y Std 135 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 55 par30/046OR 556 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 55 · 5f160y Goo 135 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Lingfield 01/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 55 · 6f1y Std 135 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 55 par1/066OR 556 @ Bath 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 54 · 5f160y Fm 130 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 54 par2 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 53 · 5f160y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 53 par13/092OR 53projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath213th8th+4
2026-07-01Bath63rd3rd0
2026-06-01Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-05-22Bath66th6th0
2026-04-30Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-02-25Lingfield64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0125/021/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/01/20264th11/142%50%+0.08
17/01/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
28/01/20263rd11/893%75%-0.18
25/02/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
30/04/20262nd9/276%89%+0.13
22/05/20266th7/282%58%-0.23
01/06/20262nd1/195%83%-0.11
01/07/20263rd7/282%71%-0.10
13/09/202613th22/10%25%+0.25