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11

Vitalline

8yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 50

Kempton · Get Best Odds Guaranteed At Unibet Handicap · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

80%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Second of 8 in a handicap at Wolverhampton 12 days ago, his best effort since winning in June. Returns to this C&D where twice successful and blinkers are back on. Entitled to go well back down to 6f.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 51 · 6f Sta 122 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 51 par8/046OR 516 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 50 · 7f1y Std 120 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 49 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 49 par2/066OR 496 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 47 · 6f Sta 127 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 47 par5 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 52 · 7f14y Std 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 52 par5/075OR 526 @ Lingfield 04/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 52 · 6f1y Std 122 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 50 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 50 par18/086OR 506 @ Lingfield 10/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 50 · 7f1y Std 126 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 50 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 50 par18/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-09-10Lingfield66th6th0
2026-08-18Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-08-04Lingfield69th9th0
2026-07-05Southwell59th8th+1
2026-06-26Newcastle61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0426/0618/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/04/20266th40/10%50%+0.50
27/04/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
02/06/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
26/06/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
05/07/20269th20/10%11%+0.11
04/08/20269th20/10%11%+0.11
18/08/20262nd11/142%89%+0.47
10/09/20266th10/147%44%-0.03
18/09/20262nd15/261%86%+0.25