17
Nelson Swift
3yo Gelding · 0-0
Laval · Prix Patapain - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#12
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Vincennes | 2 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-25 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Vincennes | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-04 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1835% of fieldRange 3-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12/2025 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 31/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 09/01/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 08/02/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 25/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |