2
Lucia Du Chatelet
5yo Filly · 0-0
Le Croise-Laroche · Prix De La Foret De Phalempin - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | La Capelle | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Marseille-borely | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Lisieux | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-19 | Argentan | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-08 | La Capelle | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 30/07/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 09/04/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |