8
Nikita Erca
3yo Filly · 0-0
Le Croise-Laroche · Prix De L'olympique Rugby Marcquois - Attele · 1m 5f 202y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Enghien | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Vincennes | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-30 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength35%
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |