8
Charthena
3yo Filly · 8-8
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength55%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-11 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 01/12/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 11/03/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 14/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |