IvyArcIvyArc
7

Blown Away

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 55

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mountaineer 02/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 5f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS2/09C6C6 @ Mountaineer 23/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 60 · 6f Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 60 parC8 @ Mountaineer 05/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 59 · 5f110y Fas 121 · below its mark05/11/2025 · OR 59 par5/11C8OR 59C6 @ Mountaineer 18/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 55 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/11/2025 · OR 55 parC8 @ Mountaineer 02/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 37 · 5f 123 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 37 par2/06C8OR 37C8 @ Mountaineer 21/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 36 · 7f Fm 124 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 36 parC5 @ Mountaineer 18/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 43 · 6f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 43 par18/08C5OR 43C5 @ Mountaineer 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 52 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 52 par2/09C5OR 52projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Mountaineer?1st-2th+3
2026-08-18Mountaineer?1st-2th+3
2026-07-21Mountaineer?6th6th0
2026-06-02Mountaineer?5th5th0
2025-11-18Mountaineer?10th8th+2
2025-11-05Mountaineer?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0918/1118/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
23/09/20258th15/261%0%-0.61
05/11/20253rd4/797%50%-0.47
18/11/202510th20/10%0%0.00
02/06/20265th11/271%20%-0.51
21/07/20266th25/10%29%+0.29
18/08/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
02/09/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05