3
El Kozan
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 73
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 10/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 22/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |