Lord Baranof
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 69
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 33% | -0.58 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 19/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |