Robert Lee

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 64

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

71%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-22	Mountaineer	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-24	Mountaineer	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-10	Mountaineer	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-04-17	Tampa Bay Downs	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-02-05	Fair Grounds	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8
2026-01-08	Fair Grounds	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength30%

Delivery trend -7.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/10/2025	9th	33/1	0%	20%	+0.20
29/11/2025	7th	25/1	0%	45%	+0.45
08/01/2026	2nd	16/1	16%	88%	+0.72
05/02/2026	8th	8/1	58%	13%	-0.45
17/04/2026	6th	9/2	76%	38%	-0.39
10/08/2026	7th	11/4	86%	0%	-0.86
24/08/2026	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14
22/09/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	71%	+0.19