1
Tail Risk
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 88
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -13.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 88% | -0.09 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |