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12

Councilwoman Jilly

7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 65

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f

#13

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Mountaineer 27/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 85 · 7f Gd 120 · below its mark27/05/2025 · OR 85 par27/05C8OR 85C7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 85 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark08/07/2025 · OR 85 parC8 @ Turfway Park 20/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 88 · 1m 121 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 88 par20/12C8OR 88C8 @ Turfway Park 09/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 87 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 87 parC8 @ Turfway Park 22/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m110y 120 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 85 par22/01C8OR 85C8 @ Turfway Park 12/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 72 · 6f110y Fas 121 · below its mark12/02/2026 · OR 72 parC8 @ Turfway Park 20/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 74 · 1m Fas 121 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 74 par20/02C8OR 74C8 @ Turfway Park 12/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 77 · 6f110y Fas 121 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 77 parC8 @ Turfway Park 25/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 77 · 6f110y 120 · below its mark25/03/2026 · OR 77 par25/03C8OR 77projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-25Turfway Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-12Turfway Park?6th7th−1
2026-02-20Turfway Park?4th5th−1
2026-02-12Turfway Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-01-22Turfway Park?5th6th−1
2026-01-09Turfway Park?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/059/0120/0225/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength97%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20252nd6/492%80%-0.12
08/07/20254th9/153%63%+0.10
20/12/20257th25/10%45%+0.45
09/01/20265th40/10%60%+0.60
22/01/20265th25/10%64%+0.64
12/02/20262nd25/10%91%+0.91
20/02/20264th12/137%63%+0.26
12/03/20266th4/179%17%-0.62
25/03/20262nd15/261%90%+0.29