1
Ghostly Girl
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 21/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 11/12/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |