10
Handle On You
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 75
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 88% | -0.06 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |