5
Legacy Trail
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 75
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
41%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |