8
Marmara
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 68
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength46%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |