New Ways To Dream
8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 70
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 19/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 15/09/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |