7
The Shoe Lady
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 71
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength48%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 08/06/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 16/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |