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3

Sable Noir

2yo Filly · 8-13

Musselburgh · British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 5f 1y

#2

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has shown plenty of speed while taking a strong hold in her 2 outings, beaten only a length in a first-time hood when third over C&D (80/1) 5 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Catterick 22/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 5f GF 12822/0644 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f1y Goo 12824/084projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Musselburgh43rd3rd0
2026-06-22Catterick48th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0624/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 350% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +71.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 3. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/06/20268th33/10%0%0.00
24/08/20263rd80/10%71%+0.71