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4

Humble Spark

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 73

Musselburgh · Weatherbys Racing Bank Selling Stakes · 1m 208y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a lengthy losing run but took a step back in the right direction when fifth at Ayr (13f) in September. Possibly found run coming too soon when only ninth of 12 in handicap at Hamilton (1½m, soft) 9 days ago. Can't be ruled out in a change of headgear (blinkers go on for first time).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 77 · 1m5f16y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 77 par3/053OR 773 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 77 · 1m3f15y Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m3f39y Goo 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 78 par30/052OR 783 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 77 · 1m3f188y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m5f26y Sft 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 78 par20/062OR 784 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m3f188y Goo 139 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 77 · 1m3f188y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 77 par25/073OR 773 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 75 · 1m5f26y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Hamilton 21/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 75 · 1m4f15y Sft 141 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 75 par21/095OR 75projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Hamilton59th10th−1
2026-09-17Ayr35th4th+1
2026-07-25York36th5th+1
2026-07-10York46th6th0
2026-06-20Ayr29th7th+2
2026-06-13York32nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0513/0625/0721/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength27%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/20262nd5/287%75%-0.12
15/05/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
30/05/20266th17/255%55%-0.01
13/06/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
20/06/20269th8/158%27%-0.31
10/07/20266th7/282%44%-0.37
25/07/20266th13/266%44%-0.21
17/09/20265th16/116%60%+0.44
21/09/20269th4/179%27%-0.52