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2

Sunriseontheboyne

4yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 76

Musselburgh · Weatherbys Racing Bank Selling Stakes · 1m 208y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

83%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back in fine form of late and bids for a hat-trick following gutsy wins at Newcastle (1m) and in 10-runner handicap over C&D (good to firm) recently. Has more to do on these terms but not dismissed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 84 · 7f14y Std 138 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 84 par6/024OR 843 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 84 · 7f14y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 83 · 1m2f43y GS 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 83 par29/033OR 834 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 79 · 7f14y Std 134 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 77 · 7f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 77 par16/053OR 775 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 75 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 73 · 1m68y Gd 140 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 73 par1/085OR 735 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 70 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 74 · 1m208y Goo 141 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 74 par12/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh51st2nd−1
2026-09-02Newcastle51st2nd−1
2026-08-01Hamilton58th9th−1
2026-06-02Newcastle57th8th−1
2026-05-16Thirsk312th11th+1
2026-04-30Southwell46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0230/041/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength98%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20269th28/10%20%+0.20
05/03/20268th80/10%0%0.00
29/03/202612th50/10%0%0.00
30/04/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
16/05/202612th50/10%0%0.00
02/06/20267th40/10%45%+0.45
01/08/20268th22/10%22%+0.22
02/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
12/09/20261st3/184%100%+0.16