Concert Boy
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 48
Musselburgh · Invades Day Party Handicap · 7f 15y
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 08/06/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 22/06/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/07/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 44% | -0.29 |