Escape Act
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 57
Musselburgh · Invades Day Party Handicap · 7f 15y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 7.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-02 | Tipperary | BHA58 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2025-04-25 | Limerick | BHA66 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2025-03-23 | Naas | BHA69 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Curragh | BHA70 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2024-10-17 | Brighton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2024 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 11/07/2024 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 01/08/2024 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 29/09/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 17/10/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 16/03/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 35% | +0.19 |
| 23/03/2025 | 14th | 28/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 25/04/2025 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 02/07/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 87% | +0.60 |