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Filey Beach

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 59

Musselburgh · Invades Day Party Handicap · 7f 15y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

53%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a third win of the season in 11-runner handicap at Catterick (7f, good) 22 days ago. Up 3 lb but this C&D scorer is weighted to go close again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Musselburgh 29/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 55 · 7f15y Goo 135 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 55 par29/046OR 556 @ Catterick 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 54 · 7f6y Gd 129 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 54 · 7f6y Goo 129 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 54 par21/056OR 546 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 59 · 7f6y GF 134 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 59 par8/076OR 596 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 49 · 7f14y Sta 135 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 59 · 7f15y Gd 135 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 59 par7/086OR 595 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 58 · 1m100y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 56 · 7f6y Goo 131 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 56 par8/096OR 56projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick61st1st0
2026-08-29Beverley55th4th+1
2026-08-07Musselburgh64th4th0
2026-07-25Newcastle64th4th0
2026-07-08Catterick67th7th0
2026-06-02Wolverhampton63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/042/067/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength90%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20264th6/492%70%-0.22
11/05/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
21/05/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
02/06/20263rd10/1195%78%-0.17
08/07/20267th3/184%25%-0.59
25/07/20264th4/179%75%-0.04
07/08/20264th13/266%25%-0.41
29/08/20265th25/10%56%+0.56
08/09/20261st3/184%100%+0.16