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2

Jkr Cobbler

7yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 58

Musselburgh · Invades Day Party Handicap · 7f 15y

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Notched a fifth success at Ayr (7f) in July. Ran respectably when fourth next time but a below-par ninth of 14 again back there (7f, soft) 13 days ago. Needs a bit more here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 24/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 59 par24/026OR 596 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 59 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 57 · 7f Gd 132 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 57 par10/046OR 575 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 56 · 7f14y Std 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 54 · 6f195y Sft 129 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 54 par8/066OR 546 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 54 · 7f173y Goo 125 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 54 · 7f50y Gd 137 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 54 par5/076OR 546 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 54 · 7f50y Goo 138 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f50y Sft 133 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 59 par17/096OR 59projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr69th9th0
2026-07-13Ayr64th4th0
2026-07-05Ayr61st1st0
2026-06-15Carlisle64th4th0
2026-06-08Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-05-19Newcastle57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0219/055/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/02/20264th10/382%67%-0.16
06/03/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
10/04/20265th11/142%69%+0.27
19/05/20267th14/126%33%+0.07
08/06/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01
15/06/20264th10/382%73%-0.10
05/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
13/07/20264th6/492%63%-0.30
17/09/20269th7/163%38%-0.25