Keep Me Stable
6yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 54
Musselburgh · Invades Day Party Handicap · 7f 15y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 6 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Musselburgh | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 22/06/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 06/07/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 17/09/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.08 |