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8

Kelpie Grey

6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 54

Musselburgh · Invades Day Party Handicap · 7f 15y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not the force of old and further decline this year, though at least fared better than for a while when third of 11 at Ayr (1m, soft) 12 days ago. Needs to build on it. Engaged 4.08 Ayr Tuesday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 66 · 6f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 66 par20/064OR 664 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 66 · 6f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 64 · 6f Goo 140 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 64 par27/076OR 646 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 62 · 6f Goo 137 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 62 · 7f50y Goo 139 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 62 par10/086OR 626 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m68y Sft 137 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 56 · 7f50y Sft 130 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 56 par17/096OR 565 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 56 · 1m Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Ayr 29/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 54 · 7f50y Hvy 129 · beat its mark29/09/2026 · OR 54 par29/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-29Ayr62nd2nd0
2026-09-18Ayr53rd2nd+1
2026-09-17Ayr67th7th0
2026-09-02Hamilton67th7th0
2026-08-10Ayr611th11th0
2026-08-08Ayr68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/068/0817/0929/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength58%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/06/20266th9/153%62%+0.09
06/07/202613th14/126%25%-0.01
27/07/20266th10/382%38%-0.45
08/08/20268th10/382%42%-0.41
10/08/202611th3/184%9%-0.75
02/09/20267th8/158%33%-0.25
17/09/20267th15/261%54%-0.07
18/09/20263rd6/168%80%+0.12
29/09/20262nd9/276%90%+0.14