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9

Misemerald

5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 52

Musselburgh · Invades Day Party Handicap · 7f 15y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a deserved first success of 2026 over 1m here in August. Backed it up with a solid third of 11 in handicap at Thirsk (1m, good) 4 days later. Must enter calculations after a break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 49 · 1m6y Std 129 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 49 par20/046OR 496 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 47 · 1m208y Gd 122 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Catterick 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 45 · 7f6y GF 126 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 45 par22/066OR 456 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 46 · 7f173y Goo 140 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 45 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 45 par16/076OR 456 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 46 · 7f15y Gd 126 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 46 · 7f15y Gd 122 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 46 par7/086OR 466 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 47 · 1m2y Gd 127 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Thirsk 28/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 47 · 7f218y Gd 149 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 47 par28/086OR 47projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Thirsk63rd3rd0
2026-08-24Musselburgh61st1st0
2026-08-07Musselburgh63rd3rd0
2026-07-31Musselburgh62nd2nd0
2026-07-16Thirsk64th4th0
2026-07-04Carlisle63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/044/077/0828/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/04/20266th20/10%62%+0.62
21/05/20266th7/163%17%-0.46
22/06/20262nd15/261%86%+0.25
04/07/20263rd17/255%75%+0.20
16/07/20264th10/147%63%+0.15
31/07/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
07/08/20263rd9/488%50%-0.38
24/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
28/08/20263rd3/184%80%-0.04