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6

Monhammer

8yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 55

Musselburgh · Invades Day Party Handicap · 7f 15y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

44%

Place Prob

39%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hold-up performer. Notched a fourth C&D success when completing a double last month. Posted another good C&D effort with third of 10 in handicap 18 days ago. A likely player off the same mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 50 · 1m2y Gd 132 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 50 par6/066OR 506 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 48 · 7f50y Sft 135 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 48 · 7f15y Gd 130 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 48 par30/066OR 486 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 48 · 7f50y Gd 131 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 50 · 7f50y Goo 130 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 50 par13/076OR 506 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 48 · 7f15y Gd 128 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 48 · 7f15y Gd 128 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 48 par7/086OR 486 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 55 · 7f15y Gd 125 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 55 par5 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 55 · 7f15y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 55 par12/095OR 55projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Musselburgh53rd2nd+1
2026-08-25Musselburgh66th6th0
2026-08-07Musselburgh61st1st0
2026-07-31Musselburgh61st1st0
2026-07-13Ayr66th6th0
2026-07-05Ayr64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/065/077/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength90%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/202610th18/15%10%+0.05
20/06/20263rd8/158%71%+0.14
30/06/20262nd8/158%88%+0.30
05/07/20264th5/174%70%-0.04
13/07/20266th12/137%38%+0.01
31/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
07/08/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
25/08/20266th9/153%44%-0.08
12/09/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41