Rwenearlytheredad
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 56
Musselburgh · Invades Day Party Handicap · 7f 15y
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ayr | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Redcar | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-09-24 | Redcar | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Redcar | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 01/08/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 04/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 54% | +0.17 |
| 16/09/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 30% | -0.33 |
| 24/09/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 08/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 09/09/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |