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2

Brandenburg

2yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 74

Musselburgh · Dropkicks Split The G Nursery · 7f 15y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner of 5f Beverley maiden in May (for Stephen Hanlon) and 6f Hamilton novice in July (for Noel Wilson). Had worst of draw when twelfth of 18 in nursery at York (6f, good) last month for another new yard. Well worth another chance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 5f3y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS28/0324 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0544 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 70 · 6f Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 70 par11/074OR 705 @ Hamilton 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 70 · 6f6y Goo 131 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 70 par17/075OR 702 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 75 par19/082OR 75projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19York212th8th+3
2026-07-17Hamilton51st1st0
2026-07-11York42nd1st+1
2026-05-04Beverley41st0th+1
2026-03-28Doncaster212th8th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/034/0511/0717/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength98%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/03/202612th66/10%21%+0.21
04/05/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
11/07/20262nd50/10%86%+0.86
17/07/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
19/08/202612th25/10%35%+0.35