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5

The First Drop

2yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 72

Musselburgh · Dropkicks Split The G Nursery · 7f 15y

#7

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped well on his debut when a clear second in 7f Carlisle maiden in June. Well below that form both runs since though, gelded before coming in fifth of 13 in novice at Ripon (1m, good to firm) last month. Cheekpieces are now reached for on handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength87%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f195y GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS24/0643 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS24/0732 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS15/082projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Ripon25th1st+3
2026-07-24York38th6th+2
2026-06-24Carlisle42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0624/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -11.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/06/20262nd25/10%90%+0.90
24/07/20268th11/486%0%-0.86
15/08/20265th25/10%67%+0.67