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Hanney Girl

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 71

Musselburgh · Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap · 5f 1y

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual 5f winner last summer. Yet to add to those successes in 2026 but she has shaped well under a positive ride when placed in 5f handicaps at Catterick and Southwell on her last 2 runs. Can make her presence felt again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 80 par18/043OR 803 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 79 · 5f Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Haydock 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 78 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 78 par23/054OR 782 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 77 · 5f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 77 par2 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 76 · 5f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 76 par27/062OR 765 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 73 · 5f15y Goo 130 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 73 par22/084OR 735 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 71 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Southwell 22/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 71 · 4f214y Std 131 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 71 par22/095OR 71projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Southwell53rd4th−1
2026-09-08Catterick52nd3rd−1
2026-08-22Chester44th4th0
2026-08-12Beverley54th5th−1
2026-06-27York29th7th+2
2026-06-05Epsom Downs29th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/045/0622/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -6.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/20267th20/10%54%+0.54
15/05/20265th22/10%75%+0.75
23/05/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
05/06/20269th7/163%47%-0.16
27/06/20269th18/15%33%+0.28
12/08/20264th9/276%67%-0.10
22/08/20264th10/382%40%-0.42
08/09/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05
22/09/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30