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4

Jer Batt

6yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 78

Musselburgh · Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap · 5f 1y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

15%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

It's now twenty one runs since his last win in 2024. Below-form ninth of 16 in handicap at Doncaster (5f, good to firm) 17 days ago. This C&D scorer needs to take a big step forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 17/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 88 · 5f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 88 par17/103OR 882 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 87 · 5f3y Hvy 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 87 par2 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 85 · 5f1y Sft 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 85 par4/042OR 854 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 84 · 5f1y Goo 134 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 82 · 5f1y Gd 136 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 82 par31/074OR 824 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 82 · 5f1y Gd 140 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 80 · 5f Hvy 138 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 80 par4/094OR 802 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 80 · 5f Sft 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 80 · 5f3y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 80 par13/093OR 80projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster39th8th+1
2026-09-05Haydock24th2nd+2
2026-09-04Haydock45th5th0
2026-08-07Musselburgh44th4th0
2026-07-31Musselburgh43rd3rd0
2026-04-26Musselburgh43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1026/044/0913/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength36%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20253rd4/179%71%-0.08
25/10/20257th7/282%45%-0.36
04/04/20267th7/282%54%-0.28
26/04/20263rd4/179%82%+0.03
31/07/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
07/08/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
04/09/20265th11/486%60%-0.26
05/09/20264th4/179%63%-0.16
13/09/20269th11/271%47%-0.24