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9yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 80

Musselburgh · Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap · 5f 1y

#11

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 4-time 5f/6f winner in 2025. Right back on song when a short-head second at Sandown (5f, soft) in August and run best forgiven (stumbled start) when last of 11 at Haydock (5f, heavy) since. Not discounted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Bath 30/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 73 · 5f160y Goo 139 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 73 par30/095OR 735 @ Kempton 15/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 72 · 6f Sta 132 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 72 par4 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 72 · 5f212y Goo 128 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 72 par18/104OR 725 @ Wolverhampton 27/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 74 · 6f20y Std 134 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 74 par4 @ Chelmsford City 06/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 74 · 6f Std 133 · beat its mark06/11/2025 · OR 74 par6/114OR 744 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 78 · 5f10y Goo 133 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 78 · 6f6y GS 138 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 78 par21/084OR 784 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 78 · 5f10y GS 131 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 78 · 5f Hvy 136 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 78 par4/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock411th11th0
2026-08-29Sandown42nd2nd0
2026-08-21Hamilton410th10th0
2026-06-12Sandown42nd2nd0
2025-11-06Chelmsford City44th4th0
2025-10-27Wolverhampton51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0927/1021/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength28%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20255th8/158%69%+0.11
15/10/20251st22/10%100%+1.00
18/10/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
27/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
06/11/20254th10/147%67%+0.19
12/06/20262nd33/10%88%+0.88
21/08/202610th25/10%10%+0.10
29/08/20262nd9/153%86%+0.33
04/09/202611th8/158%0%-0.58