6
Montezuma
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 76
Musselburgh · Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap · 5f 1y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Hamilton | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Thirsk | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength1%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 91% | +0.04 |
| 17/05/2026 | 13th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |