IvyArcIvyArc
3

Shes Got A Brother

3yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 80

Musselburgh · Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap · 5f 1y

#9

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed a pair of 5f novice events at Southwell in April. Her more recent form is far less encouraging though and she failed to beat a rival in listed race at Ayr (5.5f, soft) 12 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength76%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 09/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Std 1269/0443 @ Southwell 28/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 82 · 5f Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 82 par15/053OR 822 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 82 · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 82 par1 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 82 · 5f Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 82 par20/061OR 823 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 18 · OR 87 · 5f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 19 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 84 par19/082OR 841 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 82 · 5f110y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 82 par18/091OR 82projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr114th10th+3
2026-08-19York210th8th+2
2026-07-30Goodwood316th15th+1
2026-06-20Ayr15th1st+3
2026-06-05Epsom Downs23rd1st+2
2026-05-15York34th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/045/0619/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength11%

Delivery trend -8.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/04/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
28/04/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
15/05/20264th14/126%81%+0.55
05/06/20263rd13/266%87%+0.21
20/06/20265th28/10%71%+0.71
30/07/202616th11/142%12%-0.30
19/08/202610th15/261%50%-0.11
18/09/202614th50/10%0%0.00