IvyArcIvyArc
9

Startling

4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 71

Musselburgh · Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap · 5f 1y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thriving sprinter who scored at Southwell (5f) in September and never looked like being caught when following up to register a first turf win at Redcar (5f) 15 days ago. Can make a bold bid for the hat-trick despite 6 lb rise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 62 · 5f217y Goo 132 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 62 par18/056OR 625 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 60 · 5f Gd 132 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 4f214y Std 133 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 60 par18/065OR 605 @ Leicester 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 60 · 5f GF 126 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 61 · 5f3y GF 134 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 61 par18/075OR 616 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 138 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 60 par8/086OR 606 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 60 · 4f215y Std 135 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 65 par15/095OR 65projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Redcar51st2nd−1
2026-09-03Southwell61st3rd−2
2026-08-08Ayr62nd4th−2
2026-07-27Ayr62nd4th−2
2026-07-18Doncaster54th5th−1
2026-06-25Leicester52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0525/068/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength83%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20268th66/10%30%+0.30
05/06/20263rd33/10%80%+0.80
18/06/20262nd9/153%86%+0.33
25/06/20262nd4/696%50%-0.46
18/07/20264th5/174%25%-0.49
27/07/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
08/08/20262nd16/116%91%+0.75
03/09/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
15/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14