10
Thunderstorm Katie
5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 70
Musselburgh · Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap · 5f 1y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Hamilton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 17/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 95% | +0.47 |
| 20/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 28/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |