12
Wen Moon
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 68
Musselburgh · Weatherbys Stallion Book Handicap · 5f 1y
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Ripon | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Musselburgh | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-21 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 05/09/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 54% | +0.06 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 58% | +0.32 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 05/11/2025 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 16/04/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 08/09/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |