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2

Calef

2yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 64

Musselburgh · Global Home Of Outdoor Advertising Nursery · 5f 1y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has had plenty of racing, making the frame again on all-weather with a clearer run at Wolverhampton (5f) last week. Could find a race before the season is out.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Carlisle 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0524 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Catterick 22/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0644 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 67 · 5f7y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 67 · 5f3y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 67 par26/074OR 674 @ Musselburgh 24/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 67 · 5f1y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 67 par6 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 64 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 64 par7/096OR 646 @ Wolverhampton 21/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 64 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 64 par21/096OR 64projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-09-07Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-08-24Musselburgh46th4th+2
2026-08-06Chepstow4+2
2026-07-26Pontefract44th2nd+2
2026-07-11Hamilton44th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0511/077/0921/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength58%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20264th11/142%0%-0.42
03/06/20264th9/153%50%-0.03
22/06/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
11/07/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
26/07/20264th11/486%40%-0.46
24/08/20266th4/179%29%-0.50
07/09/20264th7/282%70%-0.12
21/09/20263rd11/271%75%+0.04